Wedbush Morgan analyst on his predictions for a 3DS release date and pricing. I know Nintendo don’t sell hardware at a loss like Sony and Microsoft but fingers crossed they keep the price as close to the cost as possible!
“I expect the device to be available only on eBay for its first couple of months. I think that we Westerners won’t have an opportunity to buy before Christmas, so think that sales by Christmas will be limited to a few million in Japan… I see it having huge success as an upgrade device, with sales likely limited only by supply and price. My best guess is that they will price it around $250/£199/€250, so this may limit demand somewhat, and I doubt that Nintendo will manufacture more than 10 – 15 million the first full year… I think that the 3DS’s addressable market is really the current DS market and some overlap with the current PSP market. That’s still a huge market opportunity.”
Source
I think Michael Pachter is quite right here. Though we’d obviously prefer a $150 price point for the 3DS, Nintendo would still likely sell 3DS units in their millions at $250.
Also news of the games costing more is probably correct too as Iwata did mention that some games for the system will cost as much as a Wii title to make and that cost will probably be passed to the consumer.
“We view the 3DS as a revolutionary device, and expect its launch to spur hardware and software sales. Due to the unique 3DS experience previewed by Nintendo at E3 this year, we believe Nintendo will be able to sell millions of units even at a price of upwards of $250. From a software perspective, we believe Nintendo will be able to increase DS software prices, from a blended average of around $25 today to over $29 next year.”
Following on from the post earlier where Microsoft claimed that Kinect offered better value than Wii or Sony Move, infamous games analyst Michael Pachter seems to agree with us that it probably doesn’t.
For new Xbox gamers the bundle is pretty good value, but for those of us who already own 360′s, the Kinect stand-alone price seems pretty high. What do you think? let us know in the comments.
“We disagree…and think that standalone Kinect, at $149, is not as good a value as a standalone Wii at $199, which comes with two games (instead of one) and a much deeper library of content. On a bundled basis, we agree that Kinect plus the Arcade 360 is a compelling value, at only $100 more than a Wii bundle, but with the deep library of Xbox 360 games available, plus a robust multiplayer experience and the opportunity for value added Xbox Live services.”
Source
While I respect Mr Pachter and his position at Wedbush Morgan, he does seem to sometimes conclude the rather obvious. Here he is doing exactly that again, forecasting the 3DS being a success basically. I’ll eat my shoes if he’s wrong!
“We adjusted our forecast downward for 2010 due to disappointing year-to-date results and our new belief that console price cuts later this year are highly unlikely. The primary driver for sales growth in 2011 – 2013 is the introduction of the Nintendo 3DS, which we expect to spur hardware and software sales dramatically for the next two years.”
Thanks gi.biz
Following on from May’s NPD sales results comes Michael Pachter from analysts Wedbush Morgan with his thoughts. Pachter is as confused as we are for the low software attach ratio of Wii and the year on year decline of Wii software despite the increased hardware sales and the analyst believes that publishers are abandoning the system.
“Wii software sales were down 19% year-over-year and DS software sales were down 13%, while PS3 software sales were up 58% and Xbox 360 software sales were up 29%. We think this is remarkable, given growth in the Wii hardware installed base of 44% and growth in the DS installed base of 33% over the last 12 months. In contrast, the PS3 installed base is up 60% and the Xbox 360 installed base is up 32% over the same period. Software sales growth mirrored hardware unit growth for both the PS3 and Xbox 360, but sorely lagged hardware unit growth for the Wii and DS.”
More after the break.
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Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan spoke with C&VG and thinks that the rumoured Goldeneye remake from Activision will not sell well on Wii:
“Given the track record of ‘hardcore’ Wii exclusives, I would bet that sales are underwhelming. It’s a funny thought to resurrect a 10 year-old brand – maybe longer – and keep it a Nintendo exclusive. It is unlike Activision to do an exclusive, and I am particularly surprised that they would do it with Goldeneye. I completely agree that most of the original audience is pretty hardcore, and think a Rare game on the 360 would have a better chance. Perhaps this is all due to the James Bond license, but… a Wii exclusive is odd.”
On a more positive note, Pachter thinks Nintendo could steal the show at E3 this year with their new 3D-enabled handheld:
“[Nintendo may] steal the show with its upcoming new handheld – the 3DS.”
On price cuts, Mr. Pachter is not holding his breath for a Wii price drop but is certain a DS reduction will come soon in the US:
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It is clear for all to see that Aprils NPD sales were very low compared to what we are used to. Sales were not only low for one console but for all of them. Micheal Pachter of Wedbush Morgan cannot fathom any answers as to why this is however with there not being many major releases in April maybe he is right in saying people could be holding off for the big releases coming in May.
Similarly people could have been holding off buying a Wii while waiting for the black console release. Who knows, but it will be interersting to see if Mays sales bounce back.
“The April sales results are baffling to us. The dollar sales level of $399 million is the lowest since May 2007, when this generation was barely underway, and is the weakest April result since 2005, when console software sales totaled only $6 billion for the full year. The sequential decline of 54% is the greatest in the 11 years that we have been tracking monthly data (except for December-January declines), dwarfing the previous record of 42% set in March-April 2002. For the first 13 weeks of 2010, video game software sales averaged just under $162 million; for the four weeks of April, they averaged just under $100 million.
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Wedbush Morgan videogame analyst is at it again – predicting the future. Below is an excerpt from a recent interview where he continues his gloomy outlook for all things Nintendo (except 3DS).
Here he was asked which console manufacturer he would rather be at E3:
“It really depends on this 3DS and how good it is, because I don’t think Nintendo has anything else. Nintendo is on the verge of – certainly not dropping into third place or anything – losing its dominance, because I really truly believe that Sony Move is the Wii HD. I really believe it. That’s been my quote: I told everyone a Wii HD was coming this year, it just happens to say PS3 on the box. It is the Wii HD.
That’s a very easy upsell for Sony to say, ‘If you have a Wii and you really want to play high-def games on your new big high-def TV, we’ve got ‘em.’ Sony is a winner and Nintendo is a loser on the console side, because the Wii Vitality Sensor isn’t going to excite anybody. But the 3DS will. If you look at Nintendo’s line-up, everything we care about is either out or known by now.”
Continues after the link.
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Games analyst at Wedbush Morgan, Michael Pachter, has been gazing into his crystal ball again to see what fortunes await Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft bring this year. He’s estimating that PS3 and Xbox 360 will eat into the Wii’s market share by the end of the year and that Nintendo’s poor release schedule up until April has not helped boost flagging Wii console sales.
Other than that, he agrees with most people that the announcement of the 3DS was “ill-timed”. We agree!
“Nintendo’s overall performance has fallen short of our expectations, with software down over 30% and Wii hardware units down almost 50%. The company may have faced supply constraints for its hardware, but staple titles like Wii Fit with Balance Board and Wii Play were also well below historical levels”
Continued inside…
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Michael Pachter is not sure what technology Nintendo are going to include in the Nintendo 3DS, the newly announced successor to the DS which plays games in 3D without the need for glasses. Maybe it will use technology like we saw here running on the DS. We’ll find out at E3!
“I don’t understand the technology behind a 3D display that doesn’t require glasses. If it’s so easy to do, why would Samsung put out 3D HDTVs that require glasses? My guess is that Nintendo has figured something out that is either very cool and advanced, or is a gimmick, and until I see it, I really won’t know. What’s interesting to me is that Nintendo is so bold. It seems that if 3D on portable devices was easy, Apple would have beat them to it. If they truly pioneer a technology, my guess is that Apple will mimic the technology. Without a real breakthrough in game play (as happened with the DS), I’m not sure that this device will do much more than serve as a replacement for current DS owners.” – Wedbush Morgan analysts Michael Pachter
Wedbush Morgan and EEDAR industry anaylists have released their predicted NPD figures for December 2009. The actual figures will be released later this week but it hasn’t stopped these two trying to predict the number of sales for all platforms.
If either of them are close then it looksl ike Wii had an amazing month shifting around 3 million units, with DS ranging between 2.5 – 3 million sales. It wil be interesting to see who came closest later this week so report back to find out.
Hit the link for the entire breakdown per console of each analyst.
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Wedbush Morgans top videogame analyst, Mr Michael Pachter, has been talking Nintendo again and more specifically the “lot of crap” and “shovelware” that resides on the Wii.
We have to agree with Mr Pachter. The Wii with its new motion controls and the success of Wii Sports spurned a huge amount of cheaply developed games by all kinds of developers wanting to jump on the bandwagon. Of course there are some great titles on Wii too and all popular consoles are flooded with cheaply produced games that receive poor ratings by critics, however the Wii may set a new record for the console with the highest amount of shovelware ever!
In an interview with Gamasutra the Pachter says:
“The housewives who thought Wii Fit looked like fun, the grandmas who thought that Wii Sports would be a fun thing to play with their grandkids, and the 20-somethings who only wanted to play Guitar Hero or Rock Band… none of them people who you’d call ‘gamers’. They are not buying much more software. They bought what they wanted and don’t feel the need to buy more – nor are they aware of what other Wii games are out there. They’re oblivious.”
More on Pachters thoughts after the break.
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