Prediction

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Wedbush Morgan analyst on his predictions for a 3DS release date and pricing. I know Nintendo don’t sell hardware at a loss like Sony and Microsoft but fingers crossed they keep the price as close to the cost as possible!

“I expect the device to be available only on eBay for its first couple of months. I think that we Westerners won’t have an opportunity to buy before Christmas, so think that sales by Christmas will be limited to a few million in Japan… I see it having huge success as an upgrade device, with sales likely limited only by supply and price. My best guess is that they will price it around $250/£199/€250, so this may limit demand somewhat, and I doubt that Nintendo will manufacture more than 10 – 15 million the first full year… I think that the 3DS’s addressable market is really the current DS market and some overlap with the current PSP market. That’s still a huge market opportunity.”

Source

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michael pachter

I think Michael Pachter is quite right here. Though we’d obviously prefer a $150 price point for the 3DS, Nintendo would still likely sell 3DS units in their millions at $250.

Also news of the games costing more is probably correct too as Iwata did mention that some games for the system will cost as much as a Wii title to make and that cost will probably be passed to the consumer.

“We view the 3DS as a revolutionary device, and expect its launch to spur hardware and software sales. Due to the unique 3DS experience previewed by Nintendo at E3 this year, we believe Nintendo will be able to sell millions of units even at a price of upwards of $250. From a software perspective, we believe Nintendo will be able to increase DS software prices, from a blended average of around $25 today to over $29 next year.”

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While I respect Mr Pachter and his position at Wedbush Morgan, he does seem to sometimes conclude the rather obvious. Here he is doing exactly that again, forecasting the 3DS being a success basically. I’ll eat my shoes if he’s wrong!

“We adjusted our forecast downward for 2010 due to disappointing year-to-date results and our new belief that console price cuts later this year are highly unlikely. The primary driver for sales growth in 2011 – 2013 is the introduction of the Nintendo 3DS, which we expect to spur hardware and software sales dramatically for the next two years.”

Thanks gi.biz

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